ECONOMIC SHOCKER: AVERAGE DIESEL PRICE RISES N1398 OCTOBER, JUMPING 9.45 PERCENT IN ONE MONTH.
My people, prepare for higher prices of goods and services this festive season, because the cost of fueling our businesses has just received a major hit. According to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average retail price of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), popularly known as diesel, surged by a hefty 9.45 percent month on month in October 2025.
This significant jump saw the price move from N1,277.81 per litre in September to an alarming N1,398.57 per litre in October. This kind of sudden price movement is no be joke for businesses and households that depend heavily on diesel for everything from transporting food to powering private generators due to our unreliable electricity supply. The sad reality is that a nearly 10 percent hike in one month means the economic wahala of inflation is about to get much worse.
The October Gbas Gbos: Diesel Jumps 9.45 Percent
The NBS Diesel Price Watch report confirms the heavy burden placed on Nigerian businesses and consumers. Despite the year on year analysis showing a marginal decline of 2.96 percent compared to October 2024 (when the price was N1,441.28), the recent month on month increase is what truly affects the market and signals immediate cost pressure.
This upward trajectory is fundamentally driven by the triplet of challenges currently rocking Nigeria’s energy sector: continuous foreign exchange pressure on the Naira, fluctuations in global oil prices, and persistent domestic supply constraints. Since diesel is a deregulated product and largely imported, its price is directly tied to the Naira’s strength against the dollar. As the Naira struggles to find its footing, the cost of bringing in every litre of diesel automatically rises, a cost that is immediately passed on to the final consumer.
The government’s decision to approve a 15 percent ad valorem import duty on diesel in October, even though it was quickly suspended days later, also sent jitters through the market, encouraging vendors to increase prices in anticipation of new levies. With the NMDPRA reporting that Nigerians consumed an average of 17.13 million litres of diesel daily in October, this almost N1,400 price tag represents a staggering collective expense for the country.
The Great Divide: Why Some States Are Suffering More
One of the most revealing and frustrating parts of the NBS report is the massive disparity in prices across states and geopolitical zones. This variation exposes the deeply entrenched k leg structural issues in Nigeria’s fuel distribution network.
Highest Price Suffer Head: The top three states that recorded the highest average prices were Enugu (N1,468.29), followed closely by Niger (N1,465.69) and Jigawa (N1,437.40). These states, particularly those in the South East and deep North, struggle with logistics constraints, longer and more difficult supply routes, and various market inefficiencies that ultimately hike up the final cost for consumers. The South East Zone overall posted the highest regional average at N1,415.85 per litre.
Lowest Price Relief: Conversely, states like Katsina (N1,301.24), Edo (N1,307.84), and Kebbi (N1,308.94) enjoyed prices significantly below the national average. This relief is likely due to improved supply access, competitive market conditions, or better proximity to main distribution hubs. The South South Zone recorded the lowest regional average at N1,387.18.
This wide price gap means that economic strain is unevenly distributed. Businesses and citizens in Enugu and Niger are paying nearly N160 more per litre than those in Katsina, giving them a significant disadvantage in terms of production and operating costs.
The K Leg Effect: How Diesel Will Affect The Market
The nearly 10 percent rise in diesel price is not just a number on a spreadsheet; it is a multiplier effect that threatens to finish us by driving up inflation across the board. Diesel is the lifeblood of Nigeria’s industrial and commercial activities for three critical reasons:
Transportation and Logistics: Trucks, haulage companies, and buses rely entirely on diesel. When diesel price goes up, the cost of transporting everything—food, raw materials, spare parts, and consumer goods—goes up immediately. This will likely worsen food inflation, making daily sustenance more expensive, especially in regions far from supply hubs.
Manufacturing and Production: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and large manufacturing plants depend on diesel generators to run their factories for hours daily. Higher diesel costs translate directly to higher production costs. These businesses have no choice but to pass that cost on to the consumer, further fueling the inflationary cycle.
Private Power Generation: With the national grid often failing, businesses and upper middle class households rely on diesel for power. This price hike means higher running costs for schools, hospitals, offices, and homes, reducing disposable income and slowing overall economic activity.
The government must focus on fixing the structural wahala of our distribution network and stabilizing the foreign exchange market. Failure to address these two key areas means Nigerians will continue to shoulder the burden of imported inflation on a critical domestic fuel source.
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