According to projections by the World Bank, there is going to be a notable population surge in Luanda, up by 78% over the next 25 years
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The projections were made in the World Bank’s report entitled “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation” authored by Mark Roberts and Emily M. Owen.
According to the report, by the year 2050, Luanda’s population will be 20.3 million people compared to the current 11.4 million. On the other hand, the population of Lagos is going to grow by slightly over 25%, reaching 16.2 million by 2050 from 12.8 million currently.
Luanda leads Africa’s urban growth
As per the projections by the World Bank, Luanda is going to lead Africa’s urban population growth.
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“By 2050, the population of Angola’s capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. In doing so, Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA’s most populous city,” reads the World Bank report.
Lagos, which will continue being one of the region’s most populous cities, is going to see its population increasing to 16.2 million in the year 2050.
The 11 cities out of the 15 that are expected to remain in the region’s top 15 urban cities by 2050 include the ones with projected population growth ranging from 21% in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, to 70% in Yaoundé, Cameroon. The two cities expected to join the top 15 by 2050 include Bamako, Mali, and Mogadishu, Somalia. By then, the population of Bamako will have surged to 7.6 million from the current 4.2 million (80%) and Mogadishu’s to 7.2 million from the current 4.4 million (64%).
Cape Town, South Africa, and Kano, Nigeria, are projected to leave the top 15 positions, although their population growth is set to hit 36% and 31%, respectively.
Lagos aims for $1 trillion economy
Notwithstanding the projected population growth changes, Lagos is still going to remain one of Africa’s major economic centers.
Lagos’ gross domestic product measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) stood at $259 billion, placing the city as the second largest economy in Africa after Cairo in Egypt.
In October 2026, Lagos unveiled a development plan with a target of building an economy of nearly $1 trillion by the year 2052. The plan is intended to attract investors and to boost the reputation of the state as a major economic and financial hub on the global stage.
The local plan is separate from the Federal Government’s general target to develop Nigeria’s economy to a trillion dollar by 2030, a goal declared by President Bola Tinubu during the Nigeria Economic Summit in 2023.
Nevertheless, World Bank had in its May 2025 Nigeria Development Update entitled Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth issued a caution that Nigeria would have to step up its economic growth rate by five times in order to realize the national $1 trillion target by the end of the decade.
The caution from World Bank was further elaborated in a previous Nairametrics report that looked into the viability of Nigeria’s $1 trillion economy target.
