OpenAI’s revenue outlook is under fresh scrutiny after reports put its annualised revenue near $50 billion at the end of September, below the $70 billion figure recently circulating among investors and media outlets. The reported $20 billion gap unsettled technology markets, but it does not necessarily mean that OpenAI lost sales or missed an official target.
The figures were reported by the Financial Times and covered by The Guardian and TechCrunch. Annualised revenue extrapolates a recent sales pace across a full year. It is not the same as audited annual revenue.
OpenAI Revenue Report Raises Questions
The earlier $70 billion figure was widely understood as a revenue expectation. Later reporting suggested it partly came from investors trying to compare OpenAI with rival Anthropic. The distinction matters because the two AI developers do not count revenue in the same way.
OpenAI earns money through ChatGPT subscriptions and services for organisations, while spending heavily on computing infrastructure and model development. Its sales are closely watched because investors want to know whether demand for AI products can support the high cost of building and operating them.
The reported gap does not, by itself, show that OpenAI’s revenue fell by $20 billion. The accounts describe an annualised rate approaching $50 billion and an earlier estimate calculated on a different basis.
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Accounting Methods Help Explain the Gap
According to the Financial Times, Anthropic includes revenue from AI services sold through cloud partners such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud in its calculations. OpenAI does not count those partner sales in the same way. Applying Anthropic’s approach to OpenAI can therefore produce a higher figure that is difficult to compare directly with OpenAI’s own measure.
Anthropic, maker of the Claude chatbot, was reported to have reached an annualised revenue rate of about $65 billion by the end of July. Investors are comparing the rivals to judge which AI businesses can turn rapid adoption into sustainable income. However, the comparison is less reliable when the companies use different definitions.
There is another development. MarketWatch reported on Friday that Bloomberg said OpenAI was targeting a $70 billion revenue run-rate by the end of 2026. A year-end target is not the same as revenue already generated in September, and it does not automatically disprove the earlier report. Public financial documents would be needed to clarify the figures.
Investors Weigh Funding and Market Impact
The report contributed to a technology sell-off on Thursday, 8 October. The Guardian said the Nasdaq fell 1.4%, while Nvidia dropped 2.9% and Oracle declined 5.5%. Chipmakers and infrastructure companies also came under pressure as investors weighed what uncertainty around AI revenue might mean for suppliers of computing power.
Market sentiment improved on Friday after reports of OpenAI’s year-end target offered another perspective. Still, the episode showed how sensitive markets are to expectations that AI demand will rise enough to justify heavy spending on data centres, chips and model training.
OpenAI is also reportedly in early discussions to raise another $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.4 trillion, according to The Guardian. The talks have not been described as a completed deal. Investors will want clearer revenue measures and spending plans before judging the company’s long-term prospects.
Back Story: OpenAI’s Costly AI Race
OpenAI’s finances have become central to the race to commercialise advanced AI. In March, the company announced a $122 billion funding round, according to TechCrunch. Such funding reflects the cost of serving large numbers of users and developing models that require significant computing resources.
OpenAI is not alone in having to prove that its spending can deliver durable returns. AI developers, cloud providers, chipmakers and investors all depend on continued adoption and the economics of running these systems. The debate is therefore less about a missing $20 billion than about how revenue is measured and whether heavy investment can lead to lasting profits.
For now, the reported $50 billion figure, the earlier $70 billion estimate and the latest year-end target refer to different measures and timelines. Until OpenAI provides clearer financial information, its business remains substantial, but the precise scale and pace of its revenue growth are still being debated.
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