In today’s Nigeria, mobile phones are more than just communication tools—they are lifelines for banking, education, entertainment, and even governance. Behind this digital lifeline, two names stand tall: MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa. According to the latest figures released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), both companies now control an overwhelming 86.12% of the nation’s telecom industry.
This dominance reflects both their strong infrastructure investment and brand loyalty, but it also raises questions about competition, consumer choice, and the long-term future of smaller operators. Let’s take a closer look at how these two telecom giants have cemented their control, what the numbers tell us, and what lies ahead for the sector.
Table of Contents
Subscriber Decline Despite Market Concentration
Interestingly, the concentration of power in the hands of MTN and Airtel comes at a time when the telecom industry itself is seeing subscriber declines. As of July, total active telephony subscriptions dropped by 1.4% month-on-month, slipping from 171.73 million in June to 169.33 million. Internet subscriptions also fell by 2.1%, down from 141.17 million to 138.22 million.
Compared to last year, the numbers paint an even starker picture. Year-on-year, the telecom sector shrank by 20.4%, while internet subscriptions declined by 11.3%. These drops are mainly linked to the government’s push for NIN-SIM compliance, which forced operators to disconnect unverified SIM cards. Additionally, reporting corrections aimed at cleaning up inflated data added to the fall.
Despite this downward trend, MTN and Airtel’s positions remain rock solid:
- MTN Nigeria is the undisputed leader, with 52.7% market share and about 89.14 million subscribers.
- Airtel Nigeria follows with 33.4%, translating to 56.52 million subscribers.
- Globacom, once seen as a strong local challenger, now trails with just 12.3% (20.74 million subscribers).
- 9mobile, struggling for survival, controls only 1.6%, with about 2.73 million subscribers.
Put simply, while the pie itself may have shrunk, MTN and Airtel are eating almost all of it.
Market Value Tells the Same Story
Subscriber numbers are one side of the equation; financial strength is another. The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) data confirms that investors overwhelmingly place their bets on MTN and Airtel. Together, the two firms boast a combined market capitalisation of about ₦17.816 trillion.
Breaking it down:
- Airtel Africa has around 3.758 billion shares, each trading at ₦2,310.50, giving it a market value of about ₦8.683 trillion.
- MTN Nigeria, with 20.995 billion shares trading at ₦435 per unit, is valued at roughly ₦9.138 trillion.
These numbers show that the stock market mirrors the subscriber base: MTN and Airtel are far ahead of the competition, with Globacom and 9mobile barely making an impression. Investors see them as the safest bets, thanks to their infrastructure, customer reach, and ability to navigate regulatory pressures.
The Road Ahead for Nigeria’s Telecom Sector
While MTN and Airtel sit comfortably at the top, the Nigerian telecom sector itself faces structural challenges. Compliance with NIN-SIM linkage will likely keep trimming inactive or unverified subscribers in the short term. However, analysts from Cordros Capital Limited suggest that the subscriber base may recover once compliance stabilises and SIM reactivation programmes roll out.
For MTN and Airtel, the future looks relatively secure. Their vast infrastructure, strong customer bases, and financial clout mean they can weather disruptions better than smaller players. They are also investing heavily in 5G networks, mobile money services, and digital platforms, which could further solidify their dominance.
For Globacom and 9mobile, however, the road is much tougher. Their limited resources make it difficult to compete on pricing, network quality, or innovation. Without bold strategies or regulatory support, their market shares may shrink even further.
On the consumer side, the dominance of just two operators raises concerns. Less competition could mean higher prices, slower innovation, and uneven quality of service. The NCC and government may need to step in, not just with compliance enforcement, but also with policies that promote fair competition and give smaller players room to grow.
In a country where telecom services are essential for financial inclusion, education, and digital innovation, ensuring a balanced and competitive market is not just good for business—it is critical for national development.
Conclusion
The story of Nigeria’s telecom industry today is the story of MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa. Together, they hold more than four-fifths of the market, leaving little space for competitors. While subscriber numbers are temporarily declining due to regulatory enforcement, their dominance remains intact both in terms of user base and market value.
The challenge for Nigeria now is to balance this concentration with policies that ensure fair competition, better service quality, and inclusive digital growth. Whether smaller players can find a way to survive—or whether the industry becomes a two-horse race—will shape the future of connectivity in Africa’s largest economy.
Join Our Social Media Channels:
WhatsApp: NaijaEyes
Facebook: NaijaEyes
Twitter: NaijaEyes
Instagram: NaijaEyes
TikTok: NaijaEyes
