Ahead of the 2027 general elections, President Bola Tinubu is facing a strategic dilemma over how best to secure the crucial bloc votes from Rivers State.
The president is confronted with a difficult choice between two powerful political figures: the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and the Governor of Rivers State, Siminalayi Fubara.
While Wike, a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), currently serves as one of Tinubu’s key ministers in the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led federal government, Fubara recently defected from the PDP to the APC in a calculated political move aimed at strengthening his grip on power and influence within the state.
When Governor Fubara emerged as Rivers State governor in May 2023, it was widely viewed as a continuation of whatever Wike believes in as the minister single-handedly brought him to power.
But it was not long their relationship shattered and their alliance broke in pieces, almost irreparable.
Disagreements between the two men escalated rapidly, marked by accusations of misgovernance, control of state resources, and political sabotage.
Apart from the general belief that President Tinubu declared the emergency rule and suspension of democratic governance in 2025 in order save Fubara from being impeached by members of the Rivers State House of Assembly who are loyal to Wike, almost every other decision has favoured the FCT Minister.
Within the six month the retired Vice Admiral, Ibok-Ete Ibas, was the sole administrator of Rivers State, Wike’s allies consolidated influence, reshaped political structures, and even conducted local government elections, installed the Minister’s loyalists as heads of all the LGAs and further weakened pro-Fubara forces.
However, other reports indicate that the emergency rule, ironically, revived Fubara’s political prospects by halting impeachment and laying the groundwork for his return.
When the six-month military-style governance ended in September 2025, Fubara was reinstated as governor.
True to political realism, he pledged loyalty to both President Tinubu and Wike, signalling a tactical peace rather than full political reconciliation. But the Governor later took a decision which analysts described as a political blow to Wike when he defected from the PDP to the APC.
His defection and political realignments were not just symbolic; it signalled a pivot to secure political survival and relevance amid changing power dynamics.
However, it has met a response from the camp of Wike, especially after he was called the leader of the APC in the State by those close to the FCT Minister.
Wike, meanwhile, has downplayed Fubara’s perceived stature within the APC. Wike, who is the leader of the PDP in the state, insists that Fubara’s defection alone does not make the governor the APC leader in Rivers, arguing that party influence is rooted in grassroots control rather than title or timing of registration.
It was reported, the Rivers State House of Assembly recently resolved to impeach Governor Fubara and his Deputy, Ngozi Nma Odu.
They have also served him the impeachment notice.
Although no official statement from the presidency, there are claims that the President has intervened and stopped the process from continuing.
In what appears to be a clearer picture, President Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Policy and Communication, Daniel Bwala, affirmed the President’s support for Fubara, stressing that the governor must be allowed to carry out his duties without undue interference.
Bwala, during an appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme acknowledged the role of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, describing him as instrumental to the Tinubu administration.
However, he clarified that Wike is not a member of the APC.
He added that despite political differences, Governor Fubara should be given the space to govern Rivers State, emphasizing the President’s commitment to democratic principles and effective governance.
However, the big question has remained ahead of the general elections, who does Tinubu need most to win Rivers State.
Tinubu faces complex calculations in choosing allies who can deliver votes, stabilise volatile regions, and strengthen APC’s foothold across Nigeria.
Speaking on this, Dr. Adetokunbo Pearse, a leader and chieftain of the PDP in Lagos State, who served as a member of the PDP National Presidential Campaign Council in 2023, said it would be unwise for the President not to work with the Governor who controls the resources of the state.
He said, “Ahead of 2027, President Tinubu has been doing all he can to capture River State first by taking advantage of the quarrel between Wike and Fubara to institute a state of emergency.
“And now, after the state of emergency, both Tinubu and Wike find themselves in a dilemma. They are now compelled to use all sorts of tricks to force Fubara to join APC.
“So Fubara is now in APC. Wike is supporting APC, but the issue is that the people of River State are with PDP. Fubara is genuinely PDP because he was voted into office by PDP, not by Wike, and not by Bola Ahmed Tinubu and not by APC.
“So the people of River State remain with PDP, and there is nothing the president or Wike can do to get the people to vote for APC. That is the dilemma they are in. And I wish the people of Rivers State good luck. I wish them the spirit of democracy so that they can vote for who they want.
“So whether Fubara stays in APC or not, we know that Fubara is only one man, and the people of River State put him there as governor. And the people of River State are PDP and they voted for him as PDP.
“If I were the president, certainly I would go with Fubara, because he is the only person that was elected by the people in 2023 not Wike. And Wike now is a liability in Abuja, as well as in River State, because he wants to control River State.
“He doesn’t want Tinubu to control Rivers State. That is his problem. That is Wike’s problem. So naturally, if I were the president, I would not go with a man who is trying to go against all my desires. The problem is Wike keeps causing wahala for President Tinubu in Rivers State.
“So, I think what is going on in Rivers State now is an indication that the political alliance between Wike and Tinubu is over.
“Wike deserted the position that Tinubu gave him in the FCT. He left the job that he was supposed to be doing in FCT and is going to River State to cause confusion.
“So naturally, I don’t think the President will be working with Wike. He will be working more with Fubara, but no matter what they do, APC is not going to take River State in 2027 because the people are not with either of them.”
Reminded of how Wike helped the President win Rivers State in 2023, Adetokumbo added, “The presidential election was rigged. Their figures were all manipulated. Look, all the senators, PDP, all the House of Representatives- PDP, all the Assembly members- PDP, how did the people now vote for the President and for APC?
“It was just Wike’s manipulation; the way he manipulated INEC to give the result of the presidential election to Tinubu so that he will have a voice. That is how he managed to get the position of FCT.
“Look at him now, the people voted for who they wanted to vote for. That is PDP. Now the President is going to try, of course, they’re going to try to rig it in 2027, for the President, be it Wike or Fubara, whoever.
“The President himself is going to try to rig it for himself. That is why he wants to be in control of Rivers. But I guarantee you, this time round the PDP, we are not going to stand by, even if we have to call in international observers to decide the case. We want a true and credible election whoever wins in any state.
“We want that result to be credited to the person that wins, the party that wins. So all that rigging they did in 2023, we are already planning and we are going to count it out in 2027, it will not happen again.”
Also speaking to our correspondent on the subject matter, a frontline political analyst, Dr Sani Abubakar, stated that: “Without any second thought, he should go with the state governor. Now he controls the state resources, the state party machinery, and he’s the man on ground.
“Even discussing that the same man is trying to control or manipulate activities in Rivers is an aberration. So what is good for the goose is good for the gander. The same way the President would relate with other states governors, why would he not do the same in Rivers?
“We see how he related with other state governors that were either the APC governors or governors that were in other parties, and when they come to APC now he’s directly related with them.
“I give you a specific example, with Delta State. When Sherif moved to the APC, the President directed that every other person is under him, including ex-vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa and Omo-Agege. Everybody followed the governor. Why wouldn’t they do the same in Rivers?”
Asked if such a move would not be a problem for the President’s re-election in 2027 since it is widely believed that Wike was very instrumental for his election in 2023, Sani said, “Excuse me, he did not do anything for the President. He only helped him rig out the Labor Party. Wike is not really as popular.
“They just rigged the Labour Party out, and to my mind, this was what transpired. And then, you know, and the violence he used to intimidate voters from coming out to vote, then they invited people and manipulated or diverted the vote of the Labour Party.
“Apart from that, I think people are exaggerating about Wike. The fact that the President has even weighed into this thing and said that the governor should be allowed to run the show, says it all.
“And whatever you are thinking that Wike is this, or is that is just these resources that he controls. and he is fighting the governor because of the resources, because without the resources of that State, who would follow him?
“If he loses out in the control of the state and if the governor is the one calling shots and controlling the resources nobody will follow Wike. That is just what this thing is all about. It has nothing to do with the lives and welfare of the ordinary man in Rivers.
“The President is getting information from his flow cycle that this is somebody that you can’t satisfy. Wike is someone who is addicted to creating conflict and trouble, and for the fact that he is just concentrating to fight the governor, he has to rope in the national secretary of the APC, indirectly, the chairman of the APC, even the National Security Adviser. He is a liability.
“The next person this man would suddenly fire bullets on is the President. He is a liability. And I think everybody is now on a consensus level that Wike is the liability. They would rather go with the governor.”
Meanwhile, the FCT minister still believes that he maintains strong networks at the ward and local government levels, which are the fundamental structures for political mobilisation.
He also maintains a certain level of influence in the South-South.
However, some critics have argued that Wike’s political style is polarising and contributes to internal party fractures and may alienate independent voters.
Furthermore, the Governor’s recent defection to the APC has further strengthened the party’s presence in Rivers, boosting APC’s local appeal.
It also shows the governor’s loyalty to President Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s national project.
Some political analysts, however, believe that the President’s best strategy lies in balancing both men’s strengths rather than choosing one unequivocally.
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