The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, has raised its 2025 economic growth prediction for Nigeria to 3.4%.
The revised estimate differs by 0.4 percentage points from the IMF’s April forecast of 3.0%.
Similarly, the IMF increased its 2026 economic growth prediction for the nation to 3.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from its April estimate of 2.7%.
The World Economic Outlook, or WEO, July 2025 edition, which also included an upward assessment of the prediction for global economic growth to 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent for 2026, was where the IMF published the updated forecast.
Compared to the reference prediction in the April 2025 WEO, the updated forecast for global economic growth for 2025 is up 0.2 percentage points, while the prognosis for 2026 is up 0.1 percentage points.
In a similar spirit, the IMF increased its projection for the Sub-Saharan African region from 3.8% and 4.2% in the April 2025 WEO to 4.0% for 2025 and 4.3% for 2026, respectively, which is a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point rise.
“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.0 per cent, before picking up to 4.3 per cent in 2026,” it said.
Commenting on the new forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth, Tunde Abidoye, Head of Equity Research, FBNQuest Merchant Bank, said: “The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS data points.
“I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services. That said, the range-bound single-digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem.”
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