The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has stated in an internal report that Nigeria’s economy today is demonstrating strong signs of full recovery and accelerated growth following a series of difficult structural reforms.
According to the agency, the upward trajectory stems from President Bola Tinubu’s economic management approach and determination in executing reforms under his Renewed Hope agenda.
The report notes that the measures have helped steer the economy away from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and resilient outlook.
NRS said, “The Nigerian economy has moved decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.”
The agency noted that the current administration came into office facing four major interrelated challenges, including an unsustainable petrol subsidy regime.
The NRS identified the remaining issues as a struggling oil sector, an opaque exchange rate system that repelled investments, and a revenue base performing significantly below capacity.
However, the revenue body stated that post-reform metrics—starting with easing inflation—point toward a firm economic rebound after initial difficulties.
The tax authority also added that key recovery signals also include Nigeria’s balance of payments swinging from a deficit into a surplus, the attainment of net fuel exporter status for the first time, a two-fold rise in nominal tax revenue, and a revitalized domestic production base.
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Nigeria now a net exporter of petroleum products
Minimum wage has also doubled between 2023 and 2026,” the report reads.
“While policies and incentives introduced by the government have reduced out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, according to estimates by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
“The government’s naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries has ensured that Nigeria has become a net exporter of petroleum products after decades of being net importers.
“Ghana recently decided to pursue a similar policy in its oil sector. From approximately 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day in 2023, production has risen to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, equivalent to 104% of the country’s OPEC quota.”
Highlighting the benefits of economic stability, the revenue authority noted that the NGX’s market capitalization expanded from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026, creating value for millions of Nigerian equity investors.
The agency credited this growth to stronger domestic institutional funding, ongoing banking sector recapitalization, and improved macroeconomic credibility.
Debt-to-GDP ratio now dropping
According to the report, Nigeria’s trade balance shifted dramatically in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, rising from a modest surplus of roughly N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion.
The agency noted that the overall composition of the country’s exports is also beginning to transform.
The NRS stated that while crude oil remains the primary driver, exports of other petroleum products grew 51% year over year to reach N6.78 trillion in Q1 2026.
“Annual capital importation increased from US$3.9 billion in 2023 to US$23.22 billion in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, inflows reached US$10.37 billion,” the report further reads.
“Foreign portfolio investment has been particularly strong, while foreign direct investment has also improved.
“Three years ago, Nigeria had no large-scale CNG programme and depended overwhelmingly on imported petrol and diesel.
“By 2026, more than 100,000 vehicles had reportedly been converted, with more than $2 billion in investment mobilised and over 10,000 jobs created.”
“Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio that was rising for years is now falling as a result of economic growth, which has moved from 2.74% in 2023 to 3.8% in the first half of 2026, while external reserves moved from an unrestricted $3.99 billion in 2023 to a 17-year high $51.9 billion as of July 2026.
Agriculture ministry allocation has climbed to N826.5bn
Additionally, the report estimated that CNG running costs can be 40 percent to 60 percent cheaper than petrol.
“For commercial drivers, some monthly fuel bills have reportedly fallen from around ₦50,000 to ₦18,000 following conversion,” the NRS said.
“The government has also significantly increased its policy focus on food security.
“Following the declaration of a state of emergency on food security in July 2023, measures included the release of strategic grain reserves, a ₦100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and an agricultural mechanisation programme.”
The report noted that federal budgetary allocations to agriculture expanded from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in 2025.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture indicated that food prices fell by nearly 50% in March 2026.
However, it cautioned that translating stronger policy support into sustainable output growth will require several planting cycles.
The document highlighted that debt service costs as a share of total revenue fell from 68 percent to 53 percent, aligning with projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and framed the shift as the first sustained drop in more than a decade.
Backstory…
The NRS claims over Nigeria’s economy today comes less than two days after the Debt Management Office (DMO) noted that the Federal Government spent N3.14 trillion on domestic debt servicing in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026.
The official figures were disclosed in the DMO’s latest domestic debt service report for Q1 2026.
A breakdown of the expenditure indicates that N169.68 billion went toward principal repayments, while N2.97 trillion was allocated to interest payments.
Read Also: Domestic Debt Servicing-Nigeria Spent N3.1tn in Q1 – DMO
