Falling sugar prices to boost profits for Dangote Sugar, BUA, and Golden Penny
Approximately 70% of the world’s raw sugar supply comes from this South American country. With 1.4 to 1.6 million metric tons of sugar consumed domestically each year, Nigeria imports a significant portion of its foreign exchange from Brazil.
The three main sugar refineries in Nigeria, which are owned by Dangote, BUA, and Golden Penny, process about 96% of the country’s imported raw sugar from Brazil.The white commodity is being impacted by favorable weather and cheap oil prices, which deter Brazilian mills from rerouting a greater portion of cane into ethanol.
Nigeria intends to expand its sugar industry.
Because of the robust and expanding demand for domestic production, Nigeria’s sugar market, which is projected to be worth $2 billion, offers investors a profitable opportunity.
The Nigeria Sugar Master Plan II (NSMP II), launched by the Federal Government, aims to boost the nation’s sugar industry by increasing output, creating jobs, and producing ethanol and energy.
The initiative aims to produce 11.6 million metric tons of animal feed, 400 megawatts of power, and 161 million gallons of ethanol. The plan’s seven pillars, which include a more thorough diversification approach, are crucial for determining the best site for sugarcane growing, increasing crop yields, and drawing in more than $4 billion in investment.
To help meet these goals, the government promoted 50,000 hectares of commercial agricultural. While new sugar projects are being considered, brownfield projects—which include extending existing sugar estates—will account for around 70% of the projected production.
Production is Revamp by Major Sugar Producers.
For the previous two months, sugar prices have been plunging; on Friday, London sugar and New York sugar futures both touched four-year lows. Prices are falling as a result of forecasts of a worldwide sugar glut.
Global sugar output is expected to reach a record 189–318 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025–2026, up 4.7% year over year (y/y), according to USDA projections. This would result in a global sugar surplus of 41–188 MMT, which is a 7.5% rise year over year.
- ndia, the world’s second-largest producer, faces a bleak outlook for sugar prices due to rising production levels. Citing increased planted cane acreage, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories forecasted last Monday that the country’s sugar production in 2025–2026 would rise by 19 percent year over year to 35 MMT. A robust sugar crop could result from anticipated abundant rainfall in India, adversely affecting prices.
- India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences predicted on April 15 that this year’s monsoon would be above average, with total rainfall expected to reach 105% of historical norms. The monsoon season in India spans from June to September.
The Indian government earlier announced it would ease restrictions on sugar exports, permitting its sugar mills to export one million metric tons of sugar this season. India has limited sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain sufficient domestic supplies.
- Thailand’s increasing sugar production is anticipated to put downward pressure on sugar prices. The country’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported on May 2 that Thailand’s sugar production increased by 14% year-over-year to 10,000 MMT in 2024–2025. Thailand ranks third for sugar production globally and second for sugar exports.
Falling sugar prices to boost profits for Dangote Sugar, BUA, and Golden Penny
Meanwhile, Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, revealed plans for a historic sugar refinery project in the Bono Region that would boost the local industry and lower Ghana’s $162 million sugar import bill. The refinery in Kwame-Danso will process 12,000 tons of sugarcane daily across 25,000 hectares of irrigated farmland.
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